Lessons from Sherlock Holmes: Confidence Is Good; Overconfidence, Not So Much
Confidence in ourselves and in our skills allows us to push our limits, achieve more than we otherwise would, try even in those borderline cases where a less confident person would bow out. But is there such a thing as being too confident, a flip side to this driver of success? Absolutely. It’s called overconfidence: when confidence trumps accuracy. In other words, we become more confident of our abilities, or of our abilities as compared with others’, than would be wise given the circumstances and the reality. And this surplus of belief in ourselves can lead to some not so pleasant results.
Overconfidence can be exploited by others
Holmes knows this tendency well and misses no opportunity to exploit it in others. In the Hound of the Baskervilles, he relies on the so-called Mr. Stapleton’s overconfidence in setting the trap for his eventual capture. By chance, Stapleton discovers Holmes’s presence in town before the detective is ready to reveal himself. When Watson asks, “What effect do you think it will have on his plans now that he knows you are here?” Holmes responds, “It may cause him to be more cautious, or it may drive him to desperate measures at once. Like most clever criminals, he may be too confident in his own cleverness and imagine that he has completely deceived us.”
The latter alternative–the one Holmes has been counting on all along–does indeed triumph. Stapleton acts precipitously and in so doing, meets his demise.
But why would someone as masterful at the art of deception and as skilled at deviousness make such a blunder? Who would doubt that Holmes is an expert at detecting even the undetectable, let alone something that could easily tip him off if not planned with the utmost caution? Stapleton is surely aware of Holmes’s powers: he has been on guard from the first. Indeed, Watson’s solitary arrival and Holmes’s hideout on the moors are specifically designed to lull him into a false sense of complacency…